2674 Forecasting Open Pit Slope Failure Runout Distances

Authors

  • Alison McQuillan Gecko Geotechnics
  • Neil Bar Gecko Geotechnics

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17159/

Abstract

Geotechnical engineers are routinely tasked with advising suitable stand-off distances below high risk sections of slopes in open pit mines identified to have potential to deform or collapse. 

Accurate prediction of failed material runout can mean the difference between continuous safe mining and unwanted high potential incidents (HPIs) that result in loss of production, equipment damage, injury or loss of life.

This paper presents new charts for predicting failed material runout distance for rock slopes. Relationships are defined for structurally-driven and rock-mass driven slope failure mechanisms at 50%, 75% and 95% prediction intervals.

Cases are sourced from varying slope geometries (fall heights up to 385m, slope angles up to 75 degrees) and a range of commodities (iron ore, coal, nickel, gold, copper, boron and limestone) across all six inhabited continents.

Analysis of these cases identified positive correlations between slope height and runout distance, and slope height and failed material volume. In general, negative correlations were identified between Fahrböschung angle and slope height, and Fahrböschung angle and failed material volume. However, significant scatter is observed in datasets comparing Fahrböschung angle to other parameters including volume, slope angle and slope height. As such, a definitive relationship could not be derived comparing Fahrböschung angle to failed material runout. Slope angle was also found to be a poor indicator of runout.

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Published

2026-01-19

Issue

Section

Papers of General Interest